tv Fast Money CNBC December 18, 2009 8:00pm-8:30pm EST
rimm -- >> that is a merge concern, the fact that motorola has a major device out there. >> i do not like rimm fu fundamentally up here. >> why? >> because they experienced a year on year decline in canada. that's where they have actually the best penetration, and the market focus right now at verizon, it's all at rimm, it's about motorola and droid. 75% of the phones are rimm but they're not focused on rimm. they are experiencing here at the united states a sequential quarter on quarter only single digits. fundamentally going into 2010, you got to love technology. however, the smart phone competition, i think rimm is at the back of the pack. >> this past quarter was in the face of already very stiff
competition. it's not like there were no other alternatives in the market. i think the whole pie is just getting bigger, though, in general. as you said, consumers, not just tech -- not just business people but average people using smart phones now, i think it's still room for that pie to grow, and so i think competition isn't necessarily a bad thing. >> countering on joe's point, when you look at research in motion, there's 10,000 people up there? forget the iphone, their phone is not only on canada, it's on norlt america, and north america to them is the united states. that's where their growth is going to come. you can't look at them as a canadian company. that's where they're based. they're looking here in the united states. >> so when it comes to rimm, can't do it, doesn't exist? >> it's not because they're consuming it, i like the con sums and the consumption for the research in motion on the iphone and everything else is in china, and that's where you're seeing the growth.
>> you pegged it last night where you said apple was the big one. >> i would not jump in and buy here, but it doesn't seem that expensive to me, actually, given what numbers they've put up again and again. except they've been able -- they did have one missed last year, but they've been able to do it multiple times. i do actually like apple better, though. >> you folks at home want to get a handle on canadians and the canadian mounted police. it's going to snow, apparently, this week. check out the untouch abablesun. about midway through the film, they break up a big bootlegging. let's talk about tech some more, shall we? >> oracle, perhaps? >> oracle is up huge today. we had rachel bleenie on the other day, that quarter was great, but western digital,
folks, take a look at wdc today. morgan just initiated with a buy, and now you might get a chance on a stock pete and i have talked about, because goldman sachs probably downgraded the stock probably on evaluation, i'm not sure why. you saw a little bit of a pull-back today. you're hoping for a big pull-back in mtap. >> that's where they moved, they took mtap off and put it back to a neutral. that space is still hot. they actually didn't go negative on the space at all. they still see a lot of growth. they see the it spent growing for everyone in the sector. they just look at unc as somebody who trailed the sector. i still think they have great fundamentals. emc, monster company, so it will move slower than mtap and the rest of them just because of the market cap. >> in this 2009 market recovery, technology has basically been the clean-up hitter.
going forward in 2010, you can't lose your clean-up hitter, so i think technology has to participate next year. i think technology clearly does not have the fundamental challenges as the rest of the sectors we talked about. technology in 2010, again, i think it assumes the same position of the clean-up because the pc upgrade cycle is for real, you're going to see double digit growth there, 12% in pcs, it's real. >> oracle, we're talking about institutions, we're talking about it spending coming in and that's the big number there. you already got a preview when you saw microsoft's numbers. they were outstanding. then you look at a dodobe on tuesday. their numbers were absolutely outstanding. growth there is really starting to get back on the uptake. they said noefr. the quarter was okay. november specifically spending came back. >> are you concerned at all about these comparisons being over? that was one point put out by a
cowan analyst at oracle specifically, but in general, that was a good thing. we've lapsed already and now we're in a period where it's going to be tougher. >> they have a great valuation sheet, you make a great point. it might be a little hiccup. i don't think it's that much of a roadblock, i think right now it's a monster stock. they grow somewhat organically, they grow great by acquisition. it's been a strategy they've employed since basically the beginning of their public company -- their initiation as a public company, so yeah, i still like oracle. >> their birthday, would you say? >> no, i didn't say that. did you say that? >> the first day of them would be like their birthday, which would be today for guy adame. happy birthday, guy. we snuck it in when you least expected it. >> 46 and they're loose. that's from a movie a lot of you folks don't know it.
maybe three of you out there do, but that's okay. >> the canadians are not going to buy the research in motion right now. that's the three. >> let's move on to the next trade now. bracing for a major snowstorm that could wreak havoc on super saturday which kicks off the last weekend before christmas. meteorologist chris warren joins us with the very latest. chris, what does it look like in terms of peak shopping hours when we are expecting this storm to be the worst? >> i tell you what, a lot of retailers would like to trade the snow for some sunshine because it's bad right here in roanoke, virginia and it's only going to get worse. if it's not snowing where you live in the northeast, there's a good chance that once it does start snowing, we could see up to a foot, maybe even two feet of snow in some spots, and by the time we get to late saturday, into sunday, and parts of long island into cape cod could see blizzard conditions. this is something retailers don't want because roads are getting dangerous already, and people shouldn't be out driving
around, even if it is to get some of those last-minute presents on this last weekend before christmas. >> chris, where are you right now? what town is that? is that roanoke? >> roanoke, virginia. if the visibility was better, you would be able to see the airport tower behind me. so we're not too far away from the airport and it only took a couple hours and there is snow everywhere. we at least have a couple, if not a few inches of snow already. >> you might know the answer to this with all the tiger woods stuff going on. do you know what the original name of the city of roanoke was? >> no, i do not. >> good for you. big lick. just fyi, you might want to use that later on another show. >> i'll pass that on to everybody else. >> right on, brother. >> thank you very much, chris. we appreciate it. did you google it? >> it's like a giant salt thing going. >> how about that?
>> french lick, big lick. >> it looked an awful lot like canada with all that snow, pete. anyway, i don't know if it's going to have the effect on boxer day that it's actually going to have on christmas. it is going to have a big effect on the holiday shopping season. we'll get into it a little bit more. tomorrow is super saturday. there is going to have to be a shift. you're not going to see people out there shopping in the stores. they're probably going to have to graduate to cyber. >> let's look at a percentage of stores out there that will be impacted by this potential snowstorm, the blizzard out there. and you can see kohl's could be the most impacted. 40% of stores for kohl's will see snow. this is a big concern for you. >> we saw fedex up a little today. maybe they will benefit from this. i don't know if they'll get snow anywhere, but you can still get
on line and get it for christmas. >> it was 140, all of a sudden he's put it at 170 for his price target. he re-evaluated. i read the note very closely. he talked about multiples and he feels like the multiple is a little bit ahead of itself, but he feels it's fair right now to go ahead, at least in the short term. >> from a technical standpoint, amazon did exactly what it was supposed to do. it pulled back at 125.50. challenged it today, held that support, and now amazon is certainly a place you want to be moving into q 1 2010. >> we have mr. mark mahaney on monday and find out how his shopping went and whether his companies benefited from this snow. >> i still love that big lick thing. that's tremendous. >> that is ginormous.
next trade here, dollar breaking out this week, gaining 2% against the euro. sending commodity prices lower. we did see gold finishing down for the third straight week. joe, what are you doing with your gold? >> absolutely nothing. what's going to happen in january? i just think the unemployment report that's going to come out on january 8 is so critical to the entire economic landscape right now, whether it be gold, whether it be the dollar. i think that is critical. it gives you a lot of direction where are we going to go. i think the correlation of lower dollar has to equal higher equitie equities, higher dollar equals lower equities. i think that correlation has broken down. >> let me ask you something, joe. you are low on gold. do you want that employment number to be higher or lower? you could make an argument either way. >> if you are long gold, you want that employment number to
continue to suggest that the federal reserve is not going to move on interest rates. so, therefore -- >> high unemployment -- >> whatever the expectation is going to be for the unemployment figure, you want the expectation to obviously disappoint the street. if it disappoints the street, obviously the chatter about ben bernanke lifltiting rates will down. >> you've got this great chart of the day -- >> i thought we would put together a little chart. when american barrack announced they had finished buying back their hedges, look at that! we call that, folks, back in my commodities days, ringing the bell. and that's not a good thing because that implies you're basically buying the highs. now, time may tell. this might be a great buy. it could be $3,000, for all i know. but all i know is since they announced they're done buying
their hedges, gold has gone straight down. and, i might point out, we told you to stay away from gold miners if you think gold is going lower, because i talked to people playing craps at the cnbc holiday party -- >> not for money. no gambling there. >> no, no, no. the stocks will go down. you look great tonight, by the way. >> thank you very much, birthday boy. morgan stanley's head of global fixing making a bold prediction for the bond market today. take a listen. >> the end of 2010 is 5.5% tenure, which is, you know, very much out of consensus. rates seem too low, particularly given the economic strength. >> cameron, what do you make of that call? >> the marcel-marceau part? that's pretty well qualified. a half, we were short of the
long end treasury curve because i do think rates will be higher, but that's pretty bold, 5.5. you can either do it long tbt or short the lt, but basically you're making that bet shortened of the treasury curve. >> here's the scary thing about it. if you look back over the past decade, let's just say he's right and we get 5%, 5.5%. if you just look at this chart right here, you will see that yields will gather momentum to the up side and you will see an environment where the ten-year yield will rise very, very quickly in similar fashion to what we kind of saw back in the '80s and then all the gold that everyone talks about having exposure for, it should kick in, and that should be favorable ownership. >> i'm just looking at my e-mail, and you know what i've got in i've got an e-mail from a viewer in canada -- >> read it. >> yes, yes, yes.
it says, don't knock canada, peter. you'll be buying most of your oil from iran and venezuela. this is from marty in ontario. >> sorry, marty, i'm glad at least one person is up there, but you know what, i'm still looking for my oil, i'm looking for bp and all these guys to provide my oil all over the world, not just in one area. i tell you, the research in motion, i still look at that and i think to myself, they're looking for growth areas, they're looking to asia for their growth. it's not so much in canada, joe. i don't feel like canada is going to hurt them at all. >> maybe what you should do in february is go out to the olympics and stop in the alberta sands region and take a look at all the potential that's there in terms of oil and tell me how critical canada is going to be to you. >> you've got to remember one thing. when you're talking about the oil sands, you need the oil to be at what price? you need it closer to the 80s and above. right now it is meaningless at these levels. >> since we're on canada, i just
but you can protect those profits and do so for free. break you down for us. options action contribute tore, bri brian. where do you see gold? >> certainly it seems like this reversal we had a few weeks ago where gold got in the 117 level. it was a quick reversal on heavy volume and heavy volume going in a downward direction. and certainly options traders have been taking a look at this and predicting that gold may go even a little bit further, and looking at $180 a share. >> what's your trade? >> i'm trying to figure out an option strategy that protects myself. i started getting long jd with options spreads. i want to protect some of those gains, especially as volatility is starting to rise. like i said, you have that price range of 117 on the upper range, 100 on the lower range.
i'm looking at a zero cost collar. that's where you buy at the put where the stock is trading at the same time you sell a call above where the stock is trading. so if i buy the january 103 put in the gld and i sell the january 113 call against it, what i do is i haven't laid out any money on that trade, and what i do is i get protection to the down side. at the same time, the one cost in this trade is that i do get called away on my stock if the gld trade is above 113. >> but if you're approaching that level, you could manage your trade so you don't get called away. >> exactly. i'm looking at the 113 strike. the reason i picked that is you look at the 117 area being some resistance in the gld. if i see the gld drift a little higher, i can certainly buy my stocks back, i can still be in the game, and hopefully over time that call will be a lot cheaper than it is now, and i
can even buy that call back in. right now things are getting more volatile and i need to protect it. >> i think it's a good strategy, when looking at gold, is to go a little bit higher. people want to keep an eye on that up side call because that's really the area they're looking for. they're looking for more up side. if it startsz to move and volatility sets in, it will start to move on the up side. >> you have to be looking at the volatility and you can watch the gold vics. that's posted on the cic, and if you see that start to decline, that's when you can buy on the call-in and start participating on the up side again. until i see the volatility remain high, i like this trade, especially if we gap down wards. >> thanks a lot for that strategy. brian stetland of stetland strategies.
we need all sources. alternative energies, solar, wind. and there are vast resources of oil and natural gas here in the u.s. that are untapped. we're able now to access oil and gas a mile down and seven miles out. we can do this safely. we can do it in an environmentally friendly way, and provide enough energy to fuel 50 million cars and 100 million homes for 25 years.
frigid friday night right here at options action. welcome to the show. i'm melissa le. tonight we are ringing in the new year for options traders. 2009 contracts have expires, and before that ball drops, we've got your best trade for the new year. plus, the take-out trade that could make you money even if it doesn't happen. gold could go bust, but mike has an options trade that is making him money. mike, the '09 rally was all about the rally in the financials. this week, pretty good week. raises in capital for citigroup. >> the citigroup offering, it depends how you look at it, but a lot of people would say it was handled pretty badly.
it could be look out below. we've golt a lot of pressure in the form of these offerings. it could be investors in a light trading environment are creating volatility. early january is going to be spelling out all the former results, and there's going to be a lot of stuff in there. >> is most of the dilution done, though? >> the low-hanging fruit, as we talked about, was picked in the q 2 into the q 3, examine the rally stalled at some point when all these companies reported their q 3 earnings. they're sitting on a very secure support level. kind of teetering after trading 190 or so in october. one of the things i think financial investors are thinking about for 2010 is that with all of this issuance, okay, to get out from under t.a.r.p., you look at earnings per share. you have an earnings number per here and you have a share count down here, and you divide that, okay? the share count has gone up